Over 40% of the all US homicides remain unsolved and what is the implication for illegal immigration
Currently, in the United States close to 40% of all homicides are unsolved. And why would this matter in regards to illegal immigration? Most people think of illegal immigrants either as hard working people that are looking to just get by and some people look at them as people that evade or laws of country and take advantage of our system in a way that is detrimental to the lower class working people already living here. Motives for various levels of control or lack of control along the border are perceived by various people as racist control measures on one end to a globalist conspiracy to build a global nation with no borders on the other. But what are the people actually coming across the border harboring. What are they like and who are they? Many people think more border control could at least control many diseases like Measles which might be brought from countries with inadequate health care, to stemming drug traffic, hampering human trafficking, and etc. Are these legitimate worries, well depends on all parameters; which country they are from, exposure, quarantine efforts, time of year, and etc. Many people think interest in more control is form of paranoia or racist. the critics of border control may feel that a free loving society should allow way ward people that took a difficult journey a chance in our country. This is a very difficult conversation that many people have talking about because the views vary so much on both sides. So MOTM would like to look at some very speculative numbers on how many of these people might be dangerous based on a rough analysis on homicides. First lets look at how many immigrants are living in the US right now and how many might be in the future?
Currently, there are about 45.6 million foreign born people living in the US. About three fourths of them are naturalized or lawful residents in the United States. Of this 45.6 million about 10-11 million are unlawfully living in the US. Close to about half of all the unlawful residents in the US are from Mexico. Recent trends show that many immigrants from Central America and other parts of Latin America are replacing Mexico as the Latin country of origin for unlawful immigration.
Before anybody gets offended remember the true number will probably never be known and we may never have the complete answer to this question. There are many other variables to consider. But lets first start by looking at homicide rates in the US.
There were 17,250 homicides in the USA in 2016. If we consider the fact that 40% of homicides are unsolved, close to 6,900 people from 2016 are walking freely in US society that committed a homicide. If we use a rough estimate using 17,000 murders per year from 1989-2018. This number over a 30 year period could mean close to 204,000 people in the USA that have committed a homicide might be walking freely in society or 63 people per 100,000. This does not count duplicate killers, people that might have gone to prison for other charges, suspects dyeing from other causes, or etc. And this is purely an estimate.
We will choose to analysis Latin America countries because the closer proximity toward the US border and the very larger number of Unlawful Residents in the US from these countries. And since the majority of Unlawful Residents over the last 10 years represented by Mexico. This purely makes making a rough speculative analysis easier to focus on Latin American Unlawful Residents that number currently close to 5 million. Currently, 42 out of 50 most dangerous cities in the world reside in Latin America, though it must be observed that three of the most dangerous cities in the world resound in the US. So comparing murder rates might have a more accurate source for analysis. Mexico currently has a homicide rate of about 29 per 100,000 people. This murder rate is about 5 to 6 times the US rate. And until recent trends Mexican Nationals represented the largest portion of illegal immigrants coming from Latin America. Many of the Latin American Countries have similar or much larger homicide rates then Mexico, for example Brazil had a homicide rate of 30 per 100,000 people. There is also no way to truly know the number of unsolved homicides that take place in Mexico or other Latin American Countries. But to give you an idea; it is estimated that 92% of all homicides in Brazil go unpunished and in 2013 it was estimated that 98% of all homicides in Mexico were unsolved.
It was estimated that close to 33,000 homicides were committed in Mexico in 2018. If we apply the 40% unsolved estimation (by US Homicide unresolved cases) of the homicides in Mexico. Then then it can be estimated that possibly close to 13,000 people in Mexico are walking freely in society that may have committed a homicide from 2018. If we use the estimation that 98% of the murders went unresolved then close to 32,000 people are walking freely in Mexico society that committed a homicide. We applied this estimation method over 30 years using only 15,000 murders per year from 1998-2008 and using 20,000 murders per year from 2009-2018. We also adjusted for changing population. We used Mexico estimates to represent the Latin world since most of the countries have similar or higher homicide rates. If we use these numbers using the US unresolved estimate of 40% then close to 151 persons per 100,000 people in Mexico might be walking freely in society that committed a homicide. If we use the estimate of 98% of all homicides in Mexico are unsolved then close to 371 people per 100,000 people in Mexico might be walking freely in society that committed a homicide. Look at the table below to compare Homicide Suspects walking freely in society between Latin American and US.
If you were betting on your life you could speculate that Mexico, if they have similar resolution of homicide cases, has about 151-371 people per 100,000 that committed a homicide walking freely in their society. This is quite a few more people than the US, but is it something to worry about? Which means that the number of people that committed a homicide and is walking freely in society could be potentially 3-6 times higher per hundred thousand people then the US. None of these numbers are set in stone, homicides rates change yearly, percent of resolved cases change, some people that committed homicides are duplicate killers, and etc. One could say that somebody is leaving their country because they are escaping violence but you could also say they are leaving because they want to escape justice. Even More, even though that seems high, also consider that 89% of homicides are estimated to be committed by men in Mexico and men represent about 50% of unlawful residents in the US. A very rough analysis suggests that adult age men coming from Mexico might have rate of 302 to 742 people per 100,000 walking freely in society that might have committed a homicide. This could be close to 3 to 8 people per 1,000 people.
And 99% could be the best people you have ever met. So, should US policy be to accommodate the other 99% adult males spite the fact that we know about the danger that the 1% represent? Before you answer that consider that many people want to change and make strict gun laws while the US homicide rate is only 5 per 100,000 people. That ignores the fact that over 98% of the US population lives in a country that has a homicide rate of 2.5 or less than 100,000 people. Which is the more present or subtle danger? And 51% of Homicides in the US reside in only 2% of the counties.
Also Feel Free to Read MOTM Article
Mexico’s Quasi Hybrid Insurgency and a Reflection on Murder Rate Statistics