China's New Dynasty: Middle Class, Automobile, Science, and Robot Revolution
January 18, 2019
China is making the headlines news for Mass detention of Uighur Muslims, a hypothetical New Cold War, Trade War, Soaring Military Budget, Intellectual Property theft, Iciness towards Taiwan and US Navy encroachment, and Trade Deficits. Many of these accusations are based on pieces of truth.
It was fairly recent that China has been reported to keep over one million Uighur Muslims in mass detention camps. It is claimed that China sent them to the so-called “reeducation centers” and forced them to undergo psychological indoctrination programs — like studying communist propaganda and giving thanks to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Chinese authorities have also reportedly used waterboarding and other forms of torture on the ethnic minority. One wonders where the outrage is in the west is over the mass detention of Muslims in China; while banning face veils on Muslim women in Western Europe is considered Islamophobia and controversial. Considering mass censorship and sanctions on individual liberties no one should be surprised because China is still a one party Communist State with leaders that still go through heavy indoctrination. Furthermore, Mao is on record saying, “Religion is Poison”, so why would anybody be surprised that many in the Chinese leadership consider Islam a mental illness.
And it was not too long ago that we were really in a Cold War with China. Unlike Russia, who the US never fought in a pitched battle during the Cold War, the US lost thousands of lives directly fighting Chinese soldiers in the Korean Peninsula from 1950-1953. Aside from the fact that the Korean War cost close to 2 million Korean lives; it also cost the lives of close to 36,000 Americans and 180,000 Chinese. US would later cross swords with China in Vietnam in a much more indirect way. Still, close to 1,000 Chinese died participating in building and supplying North Vietnam. The Vietnam war might be a kin to the first Proxy war between US and China.
“The Gulf of Tonkin incident (August 1964) and the arrival of US combat troops (1965) triggered an escalation in Chinese support. This came mainly in the form of equipment and construction. In 1965 Beijing sent several thousand engineering troops into North Vietnam, to assist in building and repairing roads, railways, airstrips and critical defense infrastructure. Between 1965 and 1971 more than 320,000 Chinese troops were deployed in North Vietnam. The peak year was in 1967 when there were around 170,000 Chinese in the communist state. Their work on military installations meant that Chinese troops were susceptible to American bombing runs. An estimated 1,000 Chinese were killed in the North in the late 1960s. Beijing also supplied Hanoi with large amounts of military equipment, including trucks, tanks and artillery.”
"late 1960s. Beijing also supplied Hanoi with large amounts of military equipment, including trucks, tanks and artillery.”
To these ends, is anybody still surprised when China gets bristly about the Topic of Unification with Taiwan, or the encroachment of US Navy Assets in the South China Sea, or Regime toppling in North Korea? China has already had two military Crises over the Taiwan Strait; 1954-1955, and 1958. China’s official policy is that of a One China Policy;
“In practice, official sources and state-owned media never refer to the "ROC government", and seldom to the "government of Taiwan". Instead, the government in Taiwan is referred to as the "Taiwan authorities". The PRC does not accept or stamp Republic of China passports. Instead, a Taiwan resident visiting Mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau must use a Taiwan Compatriot Entry Permit. “
And if you want to get up to speed on the current Diplomatic Intrigue of North Korea please read our article;
North Korea; A Reflection of a Global Hybrid Conflict
But, what is unique to the South Sea is that China is taking it to the next level. They have been building artificial Islands across the South China Sea which has made many neighbors jumpy and nervous. These islands are being equipped with runways, SA missiles, Living facilities, ports, and more. They are referred to the Spratly islands.
To these ends, is anybody still surprised when China gets bristly about the Topic of Unification with Taiwan, or the encroachment of US Navy Assets in the South China Sea, or Regime toppling in North Korea? China has already had two military Crises over the Taiwan Strait; 1954-1955, and 1958. China’s official policy is that of a One China Policy;
“In practice, official sources and state-owned media never refer to the "ROC government", and seldom to the "government of Taiwan". Instead, the government in Taiwan is referred to as the "Taiwan authorities". The PRC does not accept or stamp Republic of China passports. Instead, a Taiwan resident visiting Mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau must use a Taiwan Compatriot Entry Permit. “
And if you want to get up to speed on the current Diplomatic Intrigue of North Korea please read our article;
North Korea; A Reflection of a Global Hybrid Conflict
But, what is unique to the South Sea is that China is taking it to the next level. They have been building artificial Islands across the South China Sea which has made many neighbors jumpy and nervous. These islands are being equipped with runways, SA missiles, Living facilities, ports, and more. They are referred to the Spratly islands.
“In late 2013 the PRC embarked on large scale reclamations at seven locations – in order to strengthen territorial claims to the region demarcated by the "Nine-Dash Line".[2][3][4][5]
The artificial islands were created by dredging sand onto coral reefs which were then concreted to make permanent structures. By the time of the 2015 Shangri-La Dialogue, over 810 hectares (2,000 acres) of new land had been created.[6] By December 2016 it had reached 3,200 acres (1,300 ha) and "'significant' weapons systems, including anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems" had been installed.[7]“
And these islands came back into the headlines in 2019 when,
“January 10, 2019Beijing has announced that its so-called carrier killer anti-ship missile has been deployed to the country's northwest, just a day after the U.S. Navy sailed a warship past disputed islands in the South China Sea.
China's DF-26 ballistic missile, which reportedly has a range of 3,000-4,000 km, was mobilized to the country's northwest plateau and desert areas, the state-run Global Times newspaper reported Tuesday, quoting national broadcaster CCTV.
The newspaper called the DF-26 a "new generation of intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of targeting medium and large ships at sea."
”
Aside from all the military bluster, saber rattling, media attention on a hypothetical military confrontation with the US. A direct military conflict with China is still unlikely; risks from a collapsing North Korean government far outweigh direct military intervention, and a political/economic fallout from a war to unify Taiwan by force seem to outweigh the benefits for keeping the status quo. However, their means of soft power and projection of power will only increase in the future. As they will likely wield hybrid cold war activities such as cyber-attacks, election interference, intellectual property theft, pushing trade advantages, and increasing their military budget.
The artificial islands were created by dredging sand onto coral reefs which were then concreted to make permanent structures. By the time of the 2015 Shangri-La Dialogue, over 810 hectares (2,000 acres) of new land had been created.[6] By December 2016 it had reached 3,200 acres (1,300 ha) and "'significant' weapons systems, including anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems" had been installed.[7]“
And these islands came back into the headlines in 2019 when,
“January 10, 2019Beijing has announced that its so-called carrier killer anti-ship missile has been deployed to the country's northwest, just a day after the U.S. Navy sailed a warship past disputed islands in the South China Sea.
China's DF-26 ballistic missile, which reportedly has a range of 3,000-4,000 km, was mobilized to the country's northwest plateau and desert areas, the state-run Global Times newspaper reported Tuesday, quoting national broadcaster CCTV.
The newspaper called the DF-26 a "new generation of intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of targeting medium and large ships at sea."
”
Aside from all the military bluster, saber rattling, media attention on a hypothetical military confrontation with the US. A direct military conflict with China is still unlikely; risks from a collapsing North Korean government far outweigh direct military intervention, and a political/economic fallout from a war to unify Taiwan by force seem to outweigh the benefits for keeping the status quo. However, their means of soft power and projection of power will only increase in the future. As they will likely wield hybrid cold war activities such as cyber-attacks, election interference, intellectual property theft, pushing trade advantages, and increasing their military budget.
It is also well known that China has a very close working relationship between the military and civilian sides of their society. And it is suggested that this relationship is pursued internationally to retrieve blue prints of military equipment and civil technology. And it is done in a covert manner were the origins and intentions of these actors are obscure or hidden intentionally. It is also estimated by a think tank in 2017 that US losses 225-600 billion dollars a year in losses from intellectual property theft.
“In a speech last month that crystallized the toughening U.S. approach, Vice President Mike Pence accused the Chinese authorities of stealing “cutting-edge military blueprints” and said that “Beijing has prioritized capabilities to erode America’s military advantages on land, at sea, in the air and in space.”
An Australian think tank warned last week that China had sent thousands of scientists affiliated with its armed forces to Western universities — many disguising their military connection — as part of its effort to build a web of research collaboration that could boost Beijing’s military technology development.”
In adding various tariffs, the U.S. administration is relying partly on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to prevent what it calls unfair trade practices and theft of intellectual property.[9][10] This gives the president the authority to unilaterally impose fines or other penalties on a trading partner if it is deemed to be unfairly harming U.S. business interests, especially if it violated international trade agreements.[11] In August 2017, the U.S. opened a formal investigation into attacks on the intellectual property of the U.S. and its allies,[12] which cost the U.S. alone an estimated $225–600 billion a year in losses.[13][14][15][16] In 2018, despite tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, China’s annual trade surplus reached a record of $323.32 billion.[17]"
China’s official military budget has increase from 60 billion dollars to 175 billion dollars from 2008-2018. Real estimates for the current budget are thought to be closer to 240 billion dollars. This might seem small compared to the US military budget of 681 billion dollars a year. But, it does not consider the fact that if their military budget increase follows the last ten year trends it will come pretty close to the current US military Budget. And they are actively seeking intellectual property, military blue prints, and what else to close the technological gap as fast as possible.
“In a speech last month that crystallized the toughening U.S. approach, Vice President Mike Pence accused the Chinese authorities of stealing “cutting-edge military blueprints” and said that “Beijing has prioritized capabilities to erode America’s military advantages on land, at sea, in the air and in space.”
An Australian think tank warned last week that China had sent thousands of scientists affiliated with its armed forces to Western universities — many disguising their military connection — as part of its effort to build a web of research collaboration that could boost Beijing’s military technology development.”
In adding various tariffs, the U.S. administration is relying partly on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to prevent what it calls unfair trade practices and theft of intellectual property.[9][10] This gives the president the authority to unilaterally impose fines or other penalties on a trading partner if it is deemed to be unfairly harming U.S. business interests, especially if it violated international trade agreements.[11] In August 2017, the U.S. opened a formal investigation into attacks on the intellectual property of the U.S. and its allies,[12] which cost the U.S. alone an estimated $225–600 billion a year in losses.[13][14][15][16] In 2018, despite tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, China’s annual trade surplus reached a record of $323.32 billion.[17]"
China’s official military budget has increase from 60 billion dollars to 175 billion dollars from 2008-2018. Real estimates for the current budget are thought to be closer to 240 billion dollars. This might seem small compared to the US military budget of 681 billion dollars a year. But, it does not consider the fact that if their military budget increase follows the last ten year trends it will come pretty close to the current US military Budget. And they are actively seeking intellectual property, military blue prints, and what else to close the technological gap as fast as possible.
It is likely in the future the Chinese true military intentions will be projecting power through deterrence. And decisive confrontations will be pursued similarly to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Syria, and Georgia. And on a global level they will use trade status and military deterrence to broker more beneficial political ends to themselves.
Many governments and security think tanks will continue to decipher China’s military buildup, intentions, vision, and so on. However, there are many societal changes in the China causing a revolution of sorts that does not get the full attention from the media it deserves. For one thing, China’s GDP based on purchase power parity has already propelled China to the number one economic power in the world. Though they still struggle to become a modern economy because of currency manipulation, heavily controlled markets, ghost cities built for employment, government interventionist policies, and etc. These activities often lead to mass capital and investment flight from the mainland by individual persons, and there nominal GDP is still 14 trillion dollars, which is significantly smaller then then the US GDP nominal economy at 20 trillion dollars. However, spite all the naysayers, the last 10 years, the Rise of China still happened and is still happening. It is even estimated by Standard Charted Bank that China’s economy will surpass the US economy measured by GDP nominal purchasing power by 2030.
Many governments and security think tanks will continue to decipher China’s military buildup, intentions, vision, and so on. However, there are many societal changes in the China causing a revolution of sorts that does not get the full attention from the media it deserves. For one thing, China’s GDP based on purchase power parity has already propelled China to the number one economic power in the world. Though they still struggle to become a modern economy because of currency manipulation, heavily controlled markets, ghost cities built for employment, government interventionist policies, and etc. These activities often lead to mass capital and investment flight from the mainland by individual persons, and there nominal GDP is still 14 trillion dollars, which is significantly smaller then then the US GDP nominal economy at 20 trillion dollars. However, spite all the naysayers, the last 10 years, the Rise of China still happened and is still happening. It is even estimated by Standard Charted Bank that China’s economy will surpass the US economy measured by GDP nominal purchasing power by 2030.
However, there is already a middle class, science, automation, intellectual property patent producer, and automobile revolution taking place in China. It is estimated now that China is the largest purchaser of passenger automobiles, has the largest middle class in the world, files the largest number of patents, and buying the largest number of automated robots for industry than any other nation. And it use to be readily believed China only built eastward in order to serve the export demands of the rest of the world. But, a new China is starting to build Westward too.
Around the year 2000 close to 50% of the Chinese population was considered to live in stark poverty. Recent evaluations show only about 5% of the population lives in poverty. Even more they are considered to have to largest middle class in the world at 109 million people. Even more, it is estimated that this middle class population will more then double by 2030.
Around the year 2000 close to 50% of the Chinese population was considered to live in stark poverty. Recent evaluations show only about 5% of the population lives in poverty. Even more they are considered to have to largest middle class in the world at 109 million people. Even more, it is estimated that this middle class population will more then double by 2030.
In 2017 it was reported that China has over 300 million registered vehicles. According to the latest TomTom Traffic Index, 10 of the 25 most congested cities in the world are in mainland China, namely Chongqing, Chengdu, Beijing, Changsha, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Shanghai and Tianjin.
And the amount of infrastructure in the form of highways and railways to match their new congested roads is very impressive. They went from having close to 20,000km of expressway in 2000 to well over 100,000km currently.
This massive construction of new expressways and explosion of new automobiles is also being matched by industry on tract to be one of the most modern and sophisticated manufacturing centers the world has ever seen. China by far is the largest purchaser, destination, and user of modern robotics for manufacturing means. So many robots are being installed in China that some of the worst manual labor factor line positions are being reduced.
"China bought 36% of all factory robots in the world last year, more than any other country including the U.S., and intends to ramp up its own production of them — another sign of its determination to be the pre-eminent technological superpower.
China’s robotization has unfolded extremely quickly. The number of industrial robots in the country nearly doubled between 2015 and 2017, according to the International Federation of Robotics.
"China bought 36% of all factory robots in the world last year, more than any other country including the U.S., and intends to ramp up its own production of them — another sign of its determination to be the pre-eminent technological superpower.
China’s robotization has unfolded extremely quickly. The number of industrial robots in the country nearly doubled between 2015 and 2017, according to the International Federation of Robotics.
- Still, China lags in "robot density," or the number of industrial robots per 10,000 workers, according to IFR stats. But that, too, is changing fast.
- The trend has been driven in part by rising wages, which have made it more expensive for companies to manufacture in China, says Allen, an adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
- The other main factor is China’s push to get into manufacturing sectors that require advanced robots, like building semiconductors, he says.
- China intends to crack the top 10 most automated industries by 2020, according to the IFR, which writes in its 2018 World Robotics report that "a huge increase in local production of industrial robots is anticipated."
- "The geopolitical implications of China dominating AI and robotics are powerful, even corrosive," says Eleonore Pauwels, a researcher at the United Nations University and director of the AI Lab at the Wilson Center.
- "The new world order will be defined by a country’s capacity to harness the convergence of AI, robotics and other emerging technologies to achieve economics and security dominance."
- Distributing its robots around the world, China could gather extremely valuable personal data that can boost business — or be used for espionage.
- "These datasets are the next gold," says Pauwels. "The country that dominates AI and robotics will set the design rules for what data these robots capture, how they work with or replace us, and how they get integrated into society."
- Imagine a healthcare robot that becomes popular in the U.S. The data the bots gather could deeply inform Chinese healthcare companies about Americans' health and provide an edge over competitors, said Abishur Prakash, a consultant for the Center for Innovating the Future.
- Nearly two-thirds of the world’s commercial and consumer drones are made by China's DJI.
- Last year, the NYT reported on U.S. suspicions that DJI was sending sensitive data from the drones back to China. DJI has denied the reports.
- Prakash worries that Beijing could remotely alter the behavior of exported Chinese robots — thereby "hijacking a company’s economy by messing with their robots."
Even though purchasing and installment of automated machines in China is extremely fast and radically changing their manufacturing base quickly. They are still lagging behind the top ten automated countries in the world; when you compare density of robots to 10,000 workers. But, it is estimated that the world is on the fringes of a complete automated industrial revolution aided by Artificial Intelligence AI. It is estimated close 200 million jobs might be lost in China due to the robotic revolution. Would this loss in jobs and rise of the middle class in China cause social unrest, instability, and will the more educated and in fluent population challenge the existing government status quo?
This rapid change in middle class, robots, automobiles, and GDP growth is only a small tip of the ice berg that people see when they try to measure growth, success, and societal advancement of China. The other side of the story is the shear amount of patents declared every year and number of people graduating universities with STEM degrees (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics). For example, China for the first time in 2015 passed the USA for submitting the largest number of patents in the world. In 2017, China accounted for 42.8% of all patent applications in the world. This is by no means is a coincidence; in 2016 China had 4.7 million graduates with STEM degrees compared to 0.5 million US graduates with STEM degrees. In 2016 China almost graduated 9 times as many people with STEM degrees then the US. This is following a broad loss of interest in the US for STEM degrees. In 2012 China had over 600 thousand students studying abroad. In 2012 this was more students then USA, Germany, France, Saudi Arabia, Republic of Korea, India, Malaysia, and Vietnam Combined.
A lot has changed in China, but how much has their leadership changed with deep roots to Mao, the Cultural Revolution, One Communist Party, Korean War, One China Policy, and etc. Can we count on them to be more fair and accountable to Intellectual Property and Currency Manipulation in the future? Should our policy to China on regards to the Uighur Muslims be, “What happens in China Stays in China?” Can we overcome past political dogmas and atrocities from the Korean War to help North Korea achieve their modern potential and guide them to a path without nuclear weapons and help them achieve a society that does not require Orwellian control of their masses? These are valid questions when you are considering that China might be the most advanced country in the world by 2050, the largest economy via GDP Nominal and Purchase Price Parity by 2030. And for the most part, China falls in the category of Russia in that we share mutual assured destruction with regards to Nuclear weapons. They have limited number of functional delivery systems and their shear number of nuclear weapons compared to Russia is significantly less, but they are enough to make sure that they are a creditable threat when considering mutual assured destruction.
How much has China's society changed.....The pictures below show the same street........