Covid 19 Crisis; what does age have to do about it in Italy, forgotten cancer crisis caused by the financial crisis in 2009, and why Africa doesn’t care
March 24th 2020
Currently the economic system of the world is under a double shock from a new pandemic and an oil price war with Saudi Arabia. As of March 24th the oil prices has dropped from a high of 63$ on January 6th 2020 to 20$ on March 18th 2020.
What is behind this new oil price with Saudi Arabia?
Beginning in 2014, U.S. shale oil production increased its market share; as other producers continued producing oil, prices crashed from above $114 per barrel in 2014 to about $27 in 2016. In September 2016, Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to cooperate in managing the price of oil, creating an informal alliance of OPEC and non-OPEC producers that was dubbed "OPEC+." By January 2020, OPEC+ had cut oil production by 2.1 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia making the largest reductions in production.[3]
As a result of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic, factory output and transportation demand fell, bringing overall demand for oil down as well, and causing oil prices to fall. On 15 February 2020, the International Energy Agency announced that demand growth would fall to the lowest rate since 2011, with growth falling by 325,000 barrels per day to 825,000 barrels per day, and a contraction in consumption by 435,000 barrels per day.[4] Although demand for oil was falling globally, a drop in demand in China's markets, the largest since 2008, triggered an OPEC summit in Vienna on 5 March 2020. At the summit, OPEC agreed to cut oil production by an additional 1.5 million barrels per day through the second quarter of the year (a total production cut of 3.6 million bpd from the original 2016 agreement), with the group expected to review the policy on 9 June during their next meeting.[5] OPEC called on Russia and other non-OPEC members of OPEC+ to abide by the OPEC decision.[3] On 6 March 2020, Russia rejected the demand, marking the end of the unofficial partnership, with oil prices falling 10% after the announcement.[6][7]
In February 2020, the Trump administration put sanctions on Russia's largest oil company Rosneft.[8] Russia may have seen the oil war as a way to retaliate against U.S. sanctions, some media outlets claim.[9]
On 8 March 2020, Saudi Arabia announced unexpected price discounts of $6 to $8 per barrel to customers in Europe, Asia, and the United States. The announcement triggered a free fall in oil prices and other consequences that day, with brent crude falling by 30%, the largest drop since the Gulf War.[13][14] The West Texas Intermediate, a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing fell 20%. On 9 March 2020, stock markets worldwide reported major losses thanks in part to a combination of price war and fears over the coronavirus outbreak. Effects were felt outside of oil prices and stock markets as well; following the announcement, the Russian ruble fell 7% to a 4-year low against the U.S. dollar.[15] In the days after the announcement, oil prices and markets recovered somewhat, with oil prices increasing by 10%, and most stock markets recovering the day after Black Monday.[16][17] On 10 March, Saudi Arabia announced that it would increase its production from 9.7 million barrels per day to 12.3 million, while Russia planned to increase oil production by 300,000 barrels per day.[18] At the time, Aramco's oil production capacity was just 12 million bpd, and the firm has been instructed to expand this to 13 million.As demand continued to fall dramatically, oil prices went down further, reaching a 17-year low on 18 March where Brent was priced at $24.72 a barrel and WTI at $20.48 a barrel.[20]
As you can see the falling oil prices came at a very vulnerable time for the United States. And the DOW stock market followed it's own collapse from 29,500 to 18, 500, a very impressive drop of 11,000 points or close to 38% of the stock market as of writing this piece today. Your guess is as good as ours about where it will end up in 2-4 years time. But, if MOTM was a betting agency we bet on it being up if the world is still moderately politically stable and many of the largest emerging countries are still growing.
Beginning in 2014, U.S. shale oil production increased its market share; as other producers continued producing oil, prices crashed from above $114 per barrel in 2014 to about $27 in 2016. In September 2016, Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to cooperate in managing the price of oil, creating an informal alliance of OPEC and non-OPEC producers that was dubbed "OPEC+." By January 2020, OPEC+ had cut oil production by 2.1 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia making the largest reductions in production.[3]
As a result of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic, factory output and transportation demand fell, bringing overall demand for oil down as well, and causing oil prices to fall. On 15 February 2020, the International Energy Agency announced that demand growth would fall to the lowest rate since 2011, with growth falling by 325,000 barrels per day to 825,000 barrels per day, and a contraction in consumption by 435,000 barrels per day.[4] Although demand for oil was falling globally, a drop in demand in China's markets, the largest since 2008, triggered an OPEC summit in Vienna on 5 March 2020. At the summit, OPEC agreed to cut oil production by an additional 1.5 million barrels per day through the second quarter of the year (a total production cut of 3.6 million bpd from the original 2016 agreement), with the group expected to review the policy on 9 June during their next meeting.[5] OPEC called on Russia and other non-OPEC members of OPEC+ to abide by the OPEC decision.[3] On 6 March 2020, Russia rejected the demand, marking the end of the unofficial partnership, with oil prices falling 10% after the announcement.[6][7]
In February 2020, the Trump administration put sanctions on Russia's largest oil company Rosneft.[8] Russia may have seen the oil war as a way to retaliate against U.S. sanctions, some media outlets claim.[9]
On 8 March 2020, Saudi Arabia announced unexpected price discounts of $6 to $8 per barrel to customers in Europe, Asia, and the United States. The announcement triggered a free fall in oil prices and other consequences that day, with brent crude falling by 30%, the largest drop since the Gulf War.[13][14] The West Texas Intermediate, a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing fell 20%. On 9 March 2020, stock markets worldwide reported major losses thanks in part to a combination of price war and fears over the coronavirus outbreak. Effects were felt outside of oil prices and stock markets as well; following the announcement, the Russian ruble fell 7% to a 4-year low against the U.S. dollar.[15] In the days after the announcement, oil prices and markets recovered somewhat, with oil prices increasing by 10%, and most stock markets recovering the day after Black Monday.[16][17] On 10 March, Saudi Arabia announced that it would increase its production from 9.7 million barrels per day to 12.3 million, while Russia planned to increase oil production by 300,000 barrels per day.[18] At the time, Aramco's oil production capacity was just 12 million bpd, and the firm has been instructed to expand this to 13 million.As demand continued to fall dramatically, oil prices went down further, reaching a 17-year low on 18 March where Brent was priced at $24.72 a barrel and WTI at $20.48 a barrel.[20]
As you can see the falling oil prices came at a very vulnerable time for the United States. And the DOW stock market followed it's own collapse from 29,500 to 18, 500, a very impressive drop of 11,000 points or close to 38% of the stock market as of writing this piece today. Your guess is as good as ours about where it will end up in 2-4 years time. But, if MOTM was a betting agency we bet on it being up if the world is still moderately politically stable and many of the largest emerging countries are still growing.
Black Monday I (9 March 2020)
Crash
Prior to opening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures market experienced a 1,300 point drop based on the coronavirus and fall in the oil price described above, triggering a trading curb, or circuit breaker, that caused the futures market to suspend trading for 15 minutes.[149] This predicted 1,300 point drop would establish 9 March as being among the most points the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped in a single day.[150][151] When the market opened on 9 March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 1800 points on opening, 500 points lower than the prediction.[152]
The United States' Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 2000 points,[153] described by The News International as "the biggest ever fall in intraday trading."[154] The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a number of trading "circuit breakers" to curb panicked selling.[149] Oil firms Chevron and ExxonMobil fell about 15%.[155] The NASDAQ Composite, also in the United States, lost over 620 points.[clarification needed] The S&P 500 fell by 7.6%.[156] Oil prices fell 22%,[157] and the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell below 0.40% and 1.02% respectively.[158] Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index finished the day off by more than 10%.[159] Brazil's IBOVESPA gave up 12%, erasing over 15 months of gains for the index.[160] Australia's ASX 200 lost 7.3% – its biggest daily drop since 2008,[161][162] though it rebounded later in the day. London's FTSE 100 lost 7.7%, suffering its worst drop since the 2008 financial crisis.[163][164] BP and Shell Oil experienced intraday price drops of nearly 20%[165] The FTSE MIB, CAC 40, and DAX tanked as well, with Italy affected the most as the coronavirus pandemic in the country continues. They fell 11.2%, 8.4%, and 7.9% respectively.[166][167][168] The STOXX Europe 600 fell to more than 20% below its peak earlier in the year.[169]
In a number of Asian markets—Japan, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia—shares declined over 20% from their most recent peaks, entering bear market territory.[170] In Japan, the Nikkei 225 plummeted 5.1%.[171] In Singapore, the Straits Times Index fell 6.03%.[172] In China, the CSI 300 Index lost 3%.[173] In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index sank 4.2%.[174] In Pakistan, the PSX saw the largest ever intra-day plunge in the country's history, losing 2,302 points or 6.0%. The market closed with the KSE 100 index down 3.1%.[175] In India, the BSE SENSEX closed 1,942 points lower at 35,635 while the NSE Nifty 50 was down by 538 points to 10,451.[176]
Former George W. Bush administration energy policy advisor Bob McNally noted, "This is the first time since 1930 and ’31 that a massive negative demand shock has coincided with a supply shock;"[177] in that case it was the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act precipitating a collapse in international trade during the Great Depression, coinciding with discovery of the East Texas Oil Field during the Texas oil boom. The Washington Post posited that coronavirus-related turmoil could spark a collapse of the corporate debt bubble, sparking and worsening a recession.[178] The Central Bank of Russia announced that it would suspend foreign exchange market purchases in domestic markets for 30 days,[179] while the Central Bank of Brazil auctioned an additional $3.465 billion the foreign exchange market in two separate transactions and the Bank of Mexico increased its foreign exchange auctions program from $20 billion to $30 billion.[180][181] After announcing a $120 billion fiscal stimulus programs on 2 December,[182] Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced additional government spending,[183] while Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced additional stimulus as well.[184]
Black Thursday (12 March 2020)
Black Thursday (Crash of the 12th of March, 2020)[194] was a global stock market crash on 12 March 2020, as part of the greater 2020 stock market crash. US stock markets suffered from the greatest single-day percentage fall since the 1987 stock market crash.[195] Following Black Monday three days earlier, Black Thursday was attributed to the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic and a lack of investor confidence in US President Donald Trump after he declared a 30-day travel ban against the Schengen Area.[196] Additionally, the European Central Bank, under the lead of Christine Lagarde, decided to not cut interest rates despite market expectations,[197] leading to a drop in S&P 500 futures of more than 200 points in less than an hour.[198]
Bank Indonesia announced open market purchases of Rp4 trillion (or $276.53 million) in government bonds,[199] while Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo stated that Bank Indonesia's open market purchases of government bonds had climbed to Rp130 trillion on the year and Rp110 trillion since the end of January.[200] Despite declining to cut its deposit rate, the European Central Bank increased its asset purchases by €120 billion (or $135 billion),[201] while the Federal Reserve announced $1.5 trillion in open market purchases.[202] Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a A$17.6 billion fiscal stimulus package.[203] The Reserve Bank of India announced that it would conduct a six-month $2 billion currency swap for U.S. dollars,[204] while the Reserve Bank of Australia announced A$8.8 billion in repurchases of government bonds.[205] The Central Bank of Brazil auctioned $1.78 billion foreign exchange spots.[206]
Asia-Pacific stock markets closed down (with the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Hang Seng Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the IDX Composite of the Indonesia Stock Exchange falling to more than 20% below their 52-week highs),[207][208][209] European stock markets closed down 11% (with the FTSE 100 Index on the London Stock Exchange, the DAX on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, the CAC 40 on the Euronext Paris, and the FTSE MIB on the Borsa Italiana all closing more than 20% below their most recent peaks),[210][211] while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down an additional 10% (eclipsing the one-day record set on 9 March), the NASDAQ Composite was down 9.4%, and the S&P 500 was down 9.5% (with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 also falling to more than 20% below their peaks), and the declines activated the trading curb at the New York Stock Exchange for the second time that week.[212][213] Oil prices dropped by 8%,[214] while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities increased to 0.86% and 1.45% (and their yield curve finished normal).[215]
Crash
The US's Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index suffered from the greatest single-day percentage fall since the 1987 stock market crash, as did the UK's FTSE 100, which fell 10.87%.[216] The Canadian S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped 12%, its largest one-day drop since 1940.[217] The FTSE MIB Italian index closed with a −16.92% loss, the worst in its history.[218] Germany's DAX fell 12.24% and France's CAC 12.28%.[219] In Brazil, the Ibovespa plummeted 14.78%, after trading in the B3 was halted twice within the intraday; it also moved below the 70,000 mark before closing above it.[220][221] The NIFTY 50 on the National Stock Exchange of India fell 7.89% to more than 20% below its most recent peak, while the BSE SENSEX on the Bombay Stock Exchange fell 2,919 (or 8.18%) to 32,778.[222] The benchmark stock market index on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange fell by 9.3%.[223] The MERVAL on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange fell 9.5% to 19.5% on the week.[224] 12 March was the second time, following 9 March drop, that the 7%-drop circuit breaker was triggered since being implemented in 2013.[196]
In Colombia, the peso set an all-time low against the U.S. dollar, when it traded above 4000 pesos for the first time on record.[225][226] The Mexican peso also set an all-time record low against the U.S. dollar, trading at 22.99 pesos.[227] The cryptocurrency Bitcoin dropped 40%, its worst day in 7 years.[228] Other cryptocurrencies fell sharply as well.[229]
Black Monday II (16 March 2020)
Dow futures tumbled more than 1,000 points and Standard & Poor's 500 futures dropped 5%, triggering a circuit breaker.[230] On Monday 16 March, Asia-Pacific and European stock markets closed down (with the S&P/ASX 200 setting a one-day record fall of 9.7%, collapsing 30% from the peak that was reached on 20 February).[231][232][233] The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite, and the S&P 500 all fell by 12–13%, with the Dow eclipsing the one-day drop record set on 12 March and the trading curb being activated at the beginning of trading for the third time (after 9 and 12 March).[234] Oil prices fell by 10%,[235] while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell to 0.76% and 1.38% respectively (while their yield curve remained normal for the third straight trading session).[236]
The Cboe Volatility Index closed at 82.69 on 16 March, the highest ever closing for the index (though there were higher intraday peaks in 2008).[237][238] Around noon on 16 March, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that it would conduct a $500 billion repurchase through the afternoon of that day.[239] Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced an additional Rp22 trillion in tax-related fiscal stimulus.[240] The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey lowered its reserve requirement from 8% to 6%.[241] The Bank of Japan announced that it would not cut its bank rate lower from –0.1% but that it would conduct more open market purchases of exchange-traded funds.[242] After cutting its bank rate by 25 basis points on 7 February,[243] the Central Bank of Russia announced that it would keep its bank rate at 6%,[244] while the Bank of Korea announced that it would cut its overnight rate by 50 basis points to 0.75%.[245] The Central Bank of Chile cut its benchmark rate.[246]
Crash
Prior to opening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures market experienced a 1,300 point drop based on the coronavirus and fall in the oil price described above, triggering a trading curb, or circuit breaker, that caused the futures market to suspend trading for 15 minutes.[149] This predicted 1,300 point drop would establish 9 March as being among the most points the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped in a single day.[150][151] When the market opened on 9 March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 1800 points on opening, 500 points lower than the prediction.[152]
The United States' Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 2000 points,[153] described by The News International as "the biggest ever fall in intraday trading."[154] The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a number of trading "circuit breakers" to curb panicked selling.[149] Oil firms Chevron and ExxonMobil fell about 15%.[155] The NASDAQ Composite, also in the United States, lost over 620 points.[clarification needed] The S&P 500 fell by 7.6%.[156] Oil prices fell 22%,[157] and the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell below 0.40% and 1.02% respectively.[158] Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index finished the day off by more than 10%.[159] Brazil's IBOVESPA gave up 12%, erasing over 15 months of gains for the index.[160] Australia's ASX 200 lost 7.3% – its biggest daily drop since 2008,[161][162] though it rebounded later in the day. London's FTSE 100 lost 7.7%, suffering its worst drop since the 2008 financial crisis.[163][164] BP and Shell Oil experienced intraday price drops of nearly 20%[165] The FTSE MIB, CAC 40, and DAX tanked as well, with Italy affected the most as the coronavirus pandemic in the country continues. They fell 11.2%, 8.4%, and 7.9% respectively.[166][167][168] The STOXX Europe 600 fell to more than 20% below its peak earlier in the year.[169]
In a number of Asian markets—Japan, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia—shares declined over 20% from their most recent peaks, entering bear market territory.[170] In Japan, the Nikkei 225 plummeted 5.1%.[171] In Singapore, the Straits Times Index fell 6.03%.[172] In China, the CSI 300 Index lost 3%.[173] In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index sank 4.2%.[174] In Pakistan, the PSX saw the largest ever intra-day plunge in the country's history, losing 2,302 points or 6.0%. The market closed with the KSE 100 index down 3.1%.[175] In India, the BSE SENSEX closed 1,942 points lower at 35,635 while the NSE Nifty 50 was down by 538 points to 10,451.[176]
Former George W. Bush administration energy policy advisor Bob McNally noted, "This is the first time since 1930 and ’31 that a massive negative demand shock has coincided with a supply shock;"[177] in that case it was the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act precipitating a collapse in international trade during the Great Depression, coinciding with discovery of the East Texas Oil Field during the Texas oil boom. The Washington Post posited that coronavirus-related turmoil could spark a collapse of the corporate debt bubble, sparking and worsening a recession.[178] The Central Bank of Russia announced that it would suspend foreign exchange market purchases in domestic markets for 30 days,[179] while the Central Bank of Brazil auctioned an additional $3.465 billion the foreign exchange market in two separate transactions and the Bank of Mexico increased its foreign exchange auctions program from $20 billion to $30 billion.[180][181] After announcing a $120 billion fiscal stimulus programs on 2 December,[182] Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced additional government spending,[183] while Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced additional stimulus as well.[184]
Black Thursday (12 March 2020)
Black Thursday (Crash of the 12th of March, 2020)[194] was a global stock market crash on 12 March 2020, as part of the greater 2020 stock market crash. US stock markets suffered from the greatest single-day percentage fall since the 1987 stock market crash.[195] Following Black Monday three days earlier, Black Thursday was attributed to the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic and a lack of investor confidence in US President Donald Trump after he declared a 30-day travel ban against the Schengen Area.[196] Additionally, the European Central Bank, under the lead of Christine Lagarde, decided to not cut interest rates despite market expectations,[197] leading to a drop in S&P 500 futures of more than 200 points in less than an hour.[198]
Bank Indonesia announced open market purchases of Rp4 trillion (or $276.53 million) in government bonds,[199] while Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo stated that Bank Indonesia's open market purchases of government bonds had climbed to Rp130 trillion on the year and Rp110 trillion since the end of January.[200] Despite declining to cut its deposit rate, the European Central Bank increased its asset purchases by €120 billion (or $135 billion),[201] while the Federal Reserve announced $1.5 trillion in open market purchases.[202] Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a A$17.6 billion fiscal stimulus package.[203] The Reserve Bank of India announced that it would conduct a six-month $2 billion currency swap for U.S. dollars,[204] while the Reserve Bank of Australia announced A$8.8 billion in repurchases of government bonds.[205] The Central Bank of Brazil auctioned $1.78 billion foreign exchange spots.[206]
Asia-Pacific stock markets closed down (with the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Hang Seng Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the IDX Composite of the Indonesia Stock Exchange falling to more than 20% below their 52-week highs),[207][208][209] European stock markets closed down 11% (with the FTSE 100 Index on the London Stock Exchange, the DAX on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, the CAC 40 on the Euronext Paris, and the FTSE MIB on the Borsa Italiana all closing more than 20% below their most recent peaks),[210][211] while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down an additional 10% (eclipsing the one-day record set on 9 March), the NASDAQ Composite was down 9.4%, and the S&P 500 was down 9.5% (with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 also falling to more than 20% below their peaks), and the declines activated the trading curb at the New York Stock Exchange for the second time that week.[212][213] Oil prices dropped by 8%,[214] while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities increased to 0.86% and 1.45% (and their yield curve finished normal).[215]
Crash
The US's Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index suffered from the greatest single-day percentage fall since the 1987 stock market crash, as did the UK's FTSE 100, which fell 10.87%.[216] The Canadian S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped 12%, its largest one-day drop since 1940.[217] The FTSE MIB Italian index closed with a −16.92% loss, the worst in its history.[218] Germany's DAX fell 12.24% and France's CAC 12.28%.[219] In Brazil, the Ibovespa plummeted 14.78%, after trading in the B3 was halted twice within the intraday; it also moved below the 70,000 mark before closing above it.[220][221] The NIFTY 50 on the National Stock Exchange of India fell 7.89% to more than 20% below its most recent peak, while the BSE SENSEX on the Bombay Stock Exchange fell 2,919 (or 8.18%) to 32,778.[222] The benchmark stock market index on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange fell by 9.3%.[223] The MERVAL on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange fell 9.5% to 19.5% on the week.[224] 12 March was the second time, following 9 March drop, that the 7%-drop circuit breaker was triggered since being implemented in 2013.[196]
In Colombia, the peso set an all-time low against the U.S. dollar, when it traded above 4000 pesos for the first time on record.[225][226] The Mexican peso also set an all-time record low against the U.S. dollar, trading at 22.99 pesos.[227] The cryptocurrency Bitcoin dropped 40%, its worst day in 7 years.[228] Other cryptocurrencies fell sharply as well.[229]
Black Monday II (16 March 2020)
Dow futures tumbled more than 1,000 points and Standard & Poor's 500 futures dropped 5%, triggering a circuit breaker.[230] On Monday 16 March, Asia-Pacific and European stock markets closed down (with the S&P/ASX 200 setting a one-day record fall of 9.7%, collapsing 30% from the peak that was reached on 20 February).[231][232][233] The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite, and the S&P 500 all fell by 12–13%, with the Dow eclipsing the one-day drop record set on 12 March and the trading curb being activated at the beginning of trading for the third time (after 9 and 12 March).[234] Oil prices fell by 10%,[235] while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell to 0.76% and 1.38% respectively (while their yield curve remained normal for the third straight trading session).[236]
The Cboe Volatility Index closed at 82.69 on 16 March, the highest ever closing for the index (though there were higher intraday peaks in 2008).[237][238] Around noon on 16 March, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that it would conduct a $500 billion repurchase through the afternoon of that day.[239] Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced an additional Rp22 trillion in tax-related fiscal stimulus.[240] The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey lowered its reserve requirement from 8% to 6%.[241] The Bank of Japan announced that it would not cut its bank rate lower from –0.1% but that it would conduct more open market purchases of exchange-traded funds.[242] After cutting its bank rate by 25 basis points on 7 February,[243] the Central Bank of Russia announced that it would keep its bank rate at 6%,[244] while the Bank of Korea announced that it would cut its overnight rate by 50 basis points to 0.75%.[245] The Central Bank of Chile cut its benchmark rate.[246]
MOTM truly offers our condolences to people that suffered a great loss due to this economic turn of events and we will continue to offer moral support to people that suffer from the current COVID 19 pandemic. But MOTM would like to point out some interesting observations in relation with global deaths. As of March 24 2020 Italy is leading the world with fatalities to 7,000 deaths. MOTM believes that you must look at all the statistics for us to truly gauge a true risk factor of this pandemic.
More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority. The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country’s coronavirus fatalities, finding that just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions. More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease. The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.Threat to the ElderlyThe median age of the infected is 63 but most of those who die are older
More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority. The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country’s coronavirus fatalities, finding that just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions. More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease. The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.Threat to the ElderlyThe median age of the infected is 63 but most of those who die are older
The interesting thing about is Italy is that the average age of the COVID 19 victim is over 79, or only 3 years less then the average life expectancy of the country. Another way to look at is that over half the victims were over 82 and had at least another illness. Which means that many of the victims had 75% chance of dying in next 18 months anyways. If only 10% of the victims are dying deaths that are truly preventable is the death rate of this pandemic closer to that of the Swine flu? Lets consider that close to 1 million US citizens die each year to diseases and mental health issues that might have been preventable. And roughly 2.8 to 3 million people die every year in the US. If we use Italy's demographic numbers for average fatality; probably 80-95% of the victims will be people that are going to die within the next 18 months. Most pandemic experts are suggesting that 0.5 to 2 million deaths will occur in the US during this pandemic, but based on data from Italy if only 25,000 to 400,000 deaths are questionable.
We have to also consider that the average age in Italy is 45 and it is only 38 in the USA. Close to 23% of Italy's population is over 65 and only 15% of USA's population is over 65. (Italy Left Figure and USA Right Figure)
MOTM does agree with people that think we should take any pandemic seriously and believe any preventable life should be saved. However, a financial crisis and hyperactive medical responses also have their own risks. Take for an example; between 2008-2010 it is believed by some experts that the financial crisis may have been responsible for the deaths of 500,000 cancer patients.
The global financial crisis may have caused an additional 500,000 cancer deaths from 2008-2010, a new study said Thursday, with patients locked out of treatment because of unemployment and healthcare cuts. The figures were extrapolated from an observed rise in cancer deaths for every percentage increase in unemployment, and every drop in public healthcare spending. "From our analysis we estimate that the economic crisis was associated with over 260,000 excess cancer deaths in the OECD (34-member Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) alone, between 2008-2010," study author Mahiben Maruthappu of Imperial College London told AFP. "This suggests that there could have been well over 500,000 excess cancer deaths worldwide during this time." For the European Union alone, the estimate was 160,000 additional deaths -- a term used to describe people who would not otherwise have died. For the United States, the estimate was 18,000 and for France 1,500. For Spain and Britain, which provided universal healthcare, no additional deaths were calculated
The global financial crisis may have caused an additional 500,000 cancer deaths from 2008-2010, a new study said Thursday, with patients locked out of treatment because of unemployment and healthcare cuts. The figures were extrapolated from an observed rise in cancer deaths for every percentage increase in unemployment, and every drop in public healthcare spending. "From our analysis we estimate that the economic crisis was associated with over 260,000 excess cancer deaths in the OECD (34-member Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) alone, between 2008-2010," study author Mahiben Maruthappu of Imperial College London told AFP. "This suggests that there could have been well over 500,000 excess cancer deaths worldwide during this time." For the European Union alone, the estimate was 160,000 additional deaths -- a term used to describe people who would not otherwise have died. For the United States, the estimate was 18,000 and for France 1,500. For Spain and Britain, which provided universal healthcare, no additional deaths were calculated
Hyperactive Medical responses to Bacteria and Fungi has given rise to antibiotic resistant strains. of Bacteria and Fungi. This has lead to potentially 70,000 preventable deaths in the US. And having a further 2.8 million infections that are clogging up a stretched medical system that is trying to deal with the COVID 19 crisis. How many deaths from COVID 19 will be related to these antibiotic resistant strains of Bacteria and Fungi?
A new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that antibiotic-resistant (AR) bacteria and fungi cause more than 2.8 million infections and 35,000 deaths per year in the United States. In a 2013 report, the CDC reported that at least 23,000 Americans died annually from AR infections.
In addition, when factoring in C. difficile, a bacterium that is not typically resistant but can cause deadly diarrhea and is associated with the use of antibiotics, the report expands that total to more than 3 million infections and 48,000 deaths.
A new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that antibiotic-resistant (AR) bacteria and fungi cause more than 2.8 million infections and 35,000 deaths per year in the United States. In a 2013 report, the CDC reported that at least 23,000 Americans died annually from AR infections.
In addition, when factoring in C. difficile, a bacterium that is not typically resistant but can cause deadly diarrhea and is associated with the use of antibiotics, the report expands that total to more than 3 million infections and 48,000 deaths.
In the case of AR microorganisms some examples of increase resistance are:
Clinical misuse
Clinical misuse by healthcare professionals is another cause leading to increased antimicrobial resistance. Studies done by the CDC show that the indication for treatment of antibiotics, choice of the agent used, and the duration of therapy was incorrect in up to 50% of the cases studied. In another study done in an intensive care unit in a major hospital in France, it was shown that 30% to 60% of prescribed antibiotics were unnecessary.[32] These inappropriate uses of antimicrobial agents promote the development of antimicrobial resistance by supporting the bacteria in developing genetic alterations that lead to resistance. In a study done by the American Journal of Infection Control aimed to evaluate physicians’ attitudes and knowledge on antimicrobial resistance in ambulatory settings, only 63% of those surveyed reported antibiotic resistance as a problem in their local practices, while 23% reported the aggressive prescription of antibiotics as necessary to avoid failing to provide adequate care.[33] This demonstrates how a majority of doctors underestimate the impact that their own prescribing habits have on antimicrobial resistance as a whole. It also confirms that some physicians may be overly cautious when it comes to prescribing antibiotics for both medical or legal reasons, even when indication for use for these medications is not always confirmed. This can lead to unnecessary antimicrobial use.
Self medication
Self medication by consumers is defined as “the taking of medicines on one's own initiative or on another person's suggestion, who is not a certified medical professional”, and it has been identified as one of the primary reasons for the development of antimicrobial resistance.[30] In an effort to manage their own illness, patients take the advice of false media sources, friends, and family causing them to take antimicrobials unnecessarily or in excess. Many people resort to this out of necessity, when they have a limited amount of money to see a doctor, or in many developing countries a poorly developed economy and lack of doctors are the cause of self-medication. In these developing countries, governments resort to allowing the sale of antimicrobials as over the counter medications so people could have access to them without having to find or pay to see a medical professional.[31] This increased access makes it extremely easy to obtain antimicrobials without the advice of a physician, and as a result many antimicrobials are taken incorrectly leading to resistant microbial strains. One major example of a place that faces these challenges is India, where in a state called Punjab 73% of the population resorted to treating their minor health issues and chronic illnesses through self-medication.[30]
The major issue with self-medication is the lack of knowledge of the public on the dangerous effects of antimicrobial resistance, and how they can contributing to it through mistreating or misdiagnosing themselves. In order to determine the public's knowledge and preconceived notions on antibiotic resistance, a major type of antimicrobial resistance, a screening of 3537 articles published in Europe, Asia, and North America was done. Of the 55,225 total people surveyed, 70% had heard of antibiotic resistance previously, but 88% of those people thought it referred to some type of physical change in the body.[30] With so many people around the world with the ability to self-medicate using antibiotics, and a vast majority unaware of what antimicrobial resistance is, it makes the increase of antimicrobial resistance much more likely.
Food production
Livestock
A CDC infographic on how antibiotic resistance spreads through farm animals.The antimicrobial resistance crisis also extends to the food industry, specifically with food producing animals. Antibiotics are fed to livestock to act as growth supplements, and a preventative measure to decrease the likelihood of infections. This results in the transfer of resistant bacterial strains into the food that humans eat, causing potentially fatal transfer of disease. While this practice does result in better yields and meat products, it is a major issue in terms of preventing antimicrobial resistance.[34] The American Center for Science in the Public Interest linked a total of 35 food borne outbreaks from 1973 through 2009 where bacterial resistance to antibiotics was implicated, showing how this overuse in the food industry has and will continue to threaten public health. Not only are 80% of antibiotics sold in the United States used on animals, but 90% of those antibiotics are excreted in the urine and stool of livestock.[29] Those antibiotics end up in fertilizer used for food, groundwater, and surface runoff, all of which could not only lead to the spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria, but also serious environmental consequences. This isn't just a problem in the United States, but a global emerging threat. In a study published by the National Academy of Sciences mapping antimicrobial consumption in livestock globally, it was predicted that in the 228 countries studied, there would be a total 67% increase in consumption of antibiotics by livestock by 2030. In some countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa it is predicted that a 99% increase will occur.[29] This shows how serious the misuse of antimicrobials specifically antibiotics in livestock is, and why it can in many ways lead to antimicrobial resistance.
Clinical misuse
Clinical misuse by healthcare professionals is another cause leading to increased antimicrobial resistance. Studies done by the CDC show that the indication for treatment of antibiotics, choice of the agent used, and the duration of therapy was incorrect in up to 50% of the cases studied. In another study done in an intensive care unit in a major hospital in France, it was shown that 30% to 60% of prescribed antibiotics were unnecessary.[32] These inappropriate uses of antimicrobial agents promote the development of antimicrobial resistance by supporting the bacteria in developing genetic alterations that lead to resistance. In a study done by the American Journal of Infection Control aimed to evaluate physicians’ attitudes and knowledge on antimicrobial resistance in ambulatory settings, only 63% of those surveyed reported antibiotic resistance as a problem in their local practices, while 23% reported the aggressive prescription of antibiotics as necessary to avoid failing to provide adequate care.[33] This demonstrates how a majority of doctors underestimate the impact that their own prescribing habits have on antimicrobial resistance as a whole. It also confirms that some physicians may be overly cautious when it comes to prescribing antibiotics for both medical or legal reasons, even when indication for use for these medications is not always confirmed. This can lead to unnecessary antimicrobial use.
Self medication
Self medication by consumers is defined as “the taking of medicines on one's own initiative or on another person's suggestion, who is not a certified medical professional”, and it has been identified as one of the primary reasons for the development of antimicrobial resistance.[30] In an effort to manage their own illness, patients take the advice of false media sources, friends, and family causing them to take antimicrobials unnecessarily or in excess. Many people resort to this out of necessity, when they have a limited amount of money to see a doctor, or in many developing countries a poorly developed economy and lack of doctors are the cause of self-medication. In these developing countries, governments resort to allowing the sale of antimicrobials as over the counter medications so people could have access to them without having to find or pay to see a medical professional.[31] This increased access makes it extremely easy to obtain antimicrobials without the advice of a physician, and as a result many antimicrobials are taken incorrectly leading to resistant microbial strains. One major example of a place that faces these challenges is India, where in a state called Punjab 73% of the population resorted to treating their minor health issues and chronic illnesses through self-medication.[30]
The major issue with self-medication is the lack of knowledge of the public on the dangerous effects of antimicrobial resistance, and how they can contributing to it through mistreating or misdiagnosing themselves. In order to determine the public's knowledge and preconceived notions on antibiotic resistance, a major type of antimicrobial resistance, a screening of 3537 articles published in Europe, Asia, and North America was done. Of the 55,225 total people surveyed, 70% had heard of antibiotic resistance previously, but 88% of those people thought it referred to some type of physical change in the body.[30] With so many people around the world with the ability to self-medicate using antibiotics, and a vast majority unaware of what antimicrobial resistance is, it makes the increase of antimicrobial resistance much more likely.
Food production
Livestock
A CDC infographic on how antibiotic resistance spreads through farm animals.The antimicrobial resistance crisis also extends to the food industry, specifically with food producing animals. Antibiotics are fed to livestock to act as growth supplements, and a preventative measure to decrease the likelihood of infections. This results in the transfer of resistant bacterial strains into the food that humans eat, causing potentially fatal transfer of disease. While this practice does result in better yields and meat products, it is a major issue in terms of preventing antimicrobial resistance.[34] The American Center for Science in the Public Interest linked a total of 35 food borne outbreaks from 1973 through 2009 where bacterial resistance to antibiotics was implicated, showing how this overuse in the food industry has and will continue to threaten public health. Not only are 80% of antibiotics sold in the United States used on animals, but 90% of those antibiotics are excreted in the urine and stool of livestock.[29] Those antibiotics end up in fertilizer used for food, groundwater, and surface runoff, all of which could not only lead to the spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria, but also serious environmental consequences. This isn't just a problem in the United States, but a global emerging threat. In a study published by the National Academy of Sciences mapping antimicrobial consumption in livestock globally, it was predicted that in the 228 countries studied, there would be a total 67% increase in consumption of antibiotics by livestock by 2030. In some countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa it is predicted that a 99% increase will occur.[29] This shows how serious the misuse of antimicrobials specifically antibiotics in livestock is, and why it can in many ways lead to antimicrobial resistance.
When MOTM says Africa doesn't care about COVID 19; we do not mean that Africans will not suffer from this pandemic or that people shouldn't care. What we are saying is that the Coronavirus pandemic threat is being hyped up as a threat to Africa(as vulnerable countries) while in reality it might go mildly unnoticed in their continent. However, the reality on the ground in Africa is that close to 3 million people die every year to Lower respiratory tract infections, HIV, Diarrhoeal diseases, Malaria, and Tuberculosis. A severe economic shock wave may cause more vulnerable people to die then COVID 19 could ever cause in Africa. Imagine how many people living a marginal existence in Africa might not be able to get medical help because of the economic tsunami.
When experts and policy advocates debate and analyze life expectancy; more times then not it is considered a good statistic if a country has a high average life expectancy. The COVID 19 Crisis is very unique in that a low average life expectancy for a country is actually a good thing, kind of. You most consider that the average age of death for a COVID 19 victim in Italy is 79 years of age. Well, the silver lining for Africa is that the average life expectancy for the continent is only 63 years old. Furthermore, it is remarkable to note that only 3% of their population is even over 65. Europe and North America have 500-600% more people over 65 per 100,000 people then Africa.
Once again MOTM would like to thank you if you made it to the bottom of this page. We hope that we delivered interesting points of view and a variations of perspectives. We hope that the world leaders continue forth with a balanced approach in helping the suffering and ill of this world. But remember that an economic tsunami might have unintended consequences of equal or worse impacts for some demographics and regions of the world.