India: Rising Economic Star with a Contentious Nuclear Predicament and Troubling Past
1/12/2020-Currently India has made the headline news around the world as India's Nominal GDP ranking flew right past France for the 5th largest economy in the world valued at 2.9 trillion dollars. Furthermore, the Purchase Power Parity (PPP) GDP ranking of India has continued to grow to over 11 trillion dollars making India the third largest economy ranked by PPP. If India's economy continues to grow rapidly it will be the third largest economic power in the world ranked by nominal GDP in 2052. This will be a unique time for the whole world as the largest economic power in the world will be China. The combined economic output from India and China will over 100% larger then the USA's economic output based on some estimates.
Furthermore, it is estimated that by 2075 India's Nominal GDP ranking will be larger the the USA. Based on some estimates the combined economic output from India and China will be close to 300% larger then the USA's economic output.
But not all news about India was about economic growth. In February 2019 a militant attack on a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) convoy carrying security personnel on the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway was attacked by a vehicle-borne suicide bomber at Lethpora in the Pulwama district, Jammu and Kashmir, India. Over 40 CRPF personnel and the perpetrator were killed in the attack, which Jaish-e-Mohammed took responsibility for. The attacker was identified as Adil Ahmad Dar, a militant from Jammu and Kashmir, and a member of Jaish-e-Mohammed. This was the deadliest attack on Indian forces in Kashmir since 1989. This attack started a serious of new and continued hostilities between India and Pakistan. This included the controversial 2019 Balakot airstrike conducted by India in the early morning hours of February 26 when Indian warplanes crossed the de facto border in the disputed region of Kashmir, and dropped bombs in the vicinity of the town of Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan. India claimed to have killed numerous militants training for further hostilities in India and Pakistan provided controversial evidence that the India retaliation was a sham. Regardless of the terrorist attack and Balakot airstrike the these new hostilities started a wave of diplomatic and border tensions. These border tensions included on going Border Skirmishes with live fire along the LOC leading deaths of Pakistani and Indian Military and Civilian Personnel, Navel Intrusions, the Government of India revoked the special status granted to Jammu and Kashmir, and various threats of nuclear war posturing by various government and military heads of state.
"If the [Kashmir] conflict moves towards war then remember both nations have nuclear weapons and no one is a winner in a nuclear war. It will have global ramifications. The superpowers of the world have a huge responsibility...whether they support us or not, Pakistan will do everything possible," Imran Khan said in his address
Currently it is estimated that India and Pakistan have well over 100 nuclear weapon each. It is estimated that Pakistan has about 160 active nuclear weapons and has performed close to 6 nuclear weapon tests. The expansion can be described as the following:
“The sixth nuclear test (codename: Chagai-II) on 30 May 1998, at Kharan was quite a successful test of a sophisticated, compact, but "powerful plutonium bomb" designed to be carried by aircraft, vessels, and missiles. These are believed to be tritium-boosted weapons. Only a few grams of tritium can result in an increase of the explosive yield by 300% to 400%." Citing new satellite images of the facility, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said the imagery suggests construction of the second Khushab reactor is "likely finished and that the roof beams are being placed on top of the third Khushab reactor hall". A third and a fourth reactor and ancillary buildings are observed to be under construction at the Khushab site.
In an opinion published in The Hindu, former Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran wrote that Pakistan's expanding nuclear capability is "no longer driven solely by its oft-cited fears of India" but by the "paranoia about US attacks on its strategic assets." Noting recent changes in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine, Saran said "the Pakistan Military and civilian elite is convinced that the United States has also become a dangerous adversary, which seeks to disable, disarm or take forcible possession of Pakistan's nuclear arsenals and its status as nuclear power."
As of 2014, Pakistan has been reportedly developing smaller, tactical nuclear weapons for use on the battlefield. This is consistent with earlier statements from a meeting of the National Command Authority (which directs nuclear policy and development) saying Pakistan is developing "a full-spectrum deterrence capability to deter all forms of aggression."”
“The Nuclear Notebook column has been published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since 1987. This issue’s column examines Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which includes 140 to 150 warheads. The authors estimate that the country’s stockpile could realistically grow to 220 to 250 warheads by 2025, if the current trend continues.”
Plus, India's nuclear weapon development is not any less advanced then Pakistan's, if not more advanced.
"India has developed and possesses weapons of mass destruction in the form of nuclear weapons. Although India has not made any official statements about the size of its nuclear arsenal, recent estimates suggest that India has 130–140 nuclear weapons and has produced enough weapons-grade plutonium for up to 150–200 nuclear weapons. In 1999, India was estimated to have 800 kg of separated reactor-grade plutonium, with a total amount of 8,300 kg of civilian plutonium, enough for ap proximately 1,000 nuclear weapons. India's nuclear programme can trace its origins to March 1944 and its three-stage efforts in technology were established by Homi Jehangir Bhabha when he founded the nuclear research centre, the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research. India's loss of territory to China in a brief Himalayan border war in October 1962, provided the New Delhi government impetus for developing nuclear weapons as a means of deterring potential Chinese aggression. India first tested a nuclear device in 1974 (code-named "Smiling Buddha"), under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, which it called a "peaceful nuclear explosion." The test used plutonium produced in the Canadian-supplied CIRUS reactor, and raised concerns that nuclear technology supplied for peaceful purposes could be diverted to weapons purposes. This also stimulated the early work of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. India performed further nuclear tests in 1998 (code-named "Operation Shakti") under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. In 1998, as a response to the continuing tests, the United States and Japan imposed sanctions on India, which have since been lifted."
"India has developed and possesses weapons of mass destruction in the form of nuclear weapons. Although India has not made any official statements about the size of its nuclear arsenal, recent estimates suggest that India has 130–140 nuclear weapons and has produced enough weapons-grade plutonium for up to 150–200 nuclear weapons. In 1999, India was estimated to have 800 kg of separated reactor-grade plutonium, with a total amount of 8,300 kg of civilian plutonium, enough for ap proximately 1,000 nuclear weapons. India's nuclear programme can trace its origins to March 1944 and its three-stage efforts in technology were established by Homi Jehangir Bhabha when he founded the nuclear research centre, the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research. India's loss of territory to China in a brief Himalayan border war in October 1962, provided the New Delhi government impetus for developing nuclear weapons as a means of deterring potential Chinese aggression. India first tested a nuclear device in 1974 (code-named "Smiling Buddha"), under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, which it called a "peaceful nuclear explosion." The test used plutonium produced in the Canadian-supplied CIRUS reactor, and raised concerns that nuclear technology supplied for peaceful purposes could be diverted to weapons purposes. This also stimulated the early work of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. India performed further nuclear tests in 1998 (code-named "Operation Shakti") under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. In 1998, as a response to the continuing tests, the United States and Japan imposed sanctions on India, which have since been lifted."
Further India is suspected of developing a Nuetron bomb and developing intercontinental ballistic missiles. The current most advanced ICBM in development is the Agni VI.
“R Chidambaram who headed India's Pokhran-II nuclear tests said in an interview to the Press Trust of India that India is capable of producing a neutron bomb.”
Plus, there is unconfirmed reports that India is working towards a more advanced ICBM called the Surya. The Surya ICBM would put all of Europe and larges parts of the USA in its range and would have an estimated effective range of 12,000 km. The Surya would carry 3-10 MIRV warheads with yield 750 kt each. This map below shows the max effective range for the Agni VI, current most advanced known ballistic missile under developed. The Agni VI covers all of Europe and parts of the USA and Canada in it’s range.
“R Chidambaram who headed India's Pokhran-II nuclear tests said in an interview to the Press Trust of India that India is capable of producing a neutron bomb.”
Plus, there is unconfirmed reports that India is working towards a more advanced ICBM called the Surya. The Surya ICBM would put all of Europe and larges parts of the USA in its range and would have an estimated effective range of 12,000 km. The Surya would carry 3-10 MIRV warheads with yield 750 kt each. This map below shows the max effective range for the Agni VI, current most advanced known ballistic missile under developed. The Agni VI covers all of Europe and parts of the USA and Canada in it’s range.
Pakistan and India are not only a simmering conflict that goes back to the breakup of 1946-1947 when the British withdrew and relinquished power over the subcontinent. This split between the two countries was a very strong division based on two totally different national identities reaching back over a thousand years. Pakistan divided from India because it wanted to be an Islamic state and is known today as the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
"As the cabinet mission failed, the British government announced its intention to end the British Rule in 1946–47. Nationalists in British India—including Jawaharlal Nehru and Abul Kalam Azad of Congress, Jinnah of the All-India Muslim League, and Master Tara Singh representing the Sikhs—agreed to the proposed terms of transfer of power and independence in June 1947 with the Viceroy of India, Lord Mountbatten of Burma. As the United Kingdom agreed to the partitioning of India in 1947, the modern state of Pakistan was established on 14 August 1947 (27th of Ramadan in 1366 of the Islamic Calendar), amalgamating the Muslim-majority eastern and northwestern regions of British India. It comprised the provinces of Balochistan, East Bengal, the North-West Frontier Province, West Punjab, and Sindh."
This split between India and Pakistan was followed by mass riots, rape, and mass migration. This split also led to four wars; Indo-Pakistani war of 1947, 1965, 1971, 1999.
"In the riots that accompanied the partition in Punjab Province, it is believed that between 200,000 and 2,000,000 people were killed in what some have described as a retributive genocide between the religions while 50,000 Muslim women were abducted and raped by Hindu and Sikh men and 33,000 Hindu and Sikh women also experienced the same fate at the hands of Muslims Around 6.5 million Muslims moved from India to West Pakistan and 4.7 million Hindus and Sikhs moved from West Pakistan to India. It was the largest mass migration in human history Dispute over Jammu and Kashmir led to the First Kashmir War in 1948."
"As the cabinet mission failed, the British government announced its intention to end the British Rule in 1946–47. Nationalists in British India—including Jawaharlal Nehru and Abul Kalam Azad of Congress, Jinnah of the All-India Muslim League, and Master Tara Singh representing the Sikhs—agreed to the proposed terms of transfer of power and independence in June 1947 with the Viceroy of India, Lord Mountbatten of Burma. As the United Kingdom agreed to the partitioning of India in 1947, the modern state of Pakistan was established on 14 August 1947 (27th of Ramadan in 1366 of the Islamic Calendar), amalgamating the Muslim-majority eastern and northwestern regions of British India. It comprised the provinces of Balochistan, East Bengal, the North-West Frontier Province, West Punjab, and Sindh."
This split between India and Pakistan was followed by mass riots, rape, and mass migration. This split also led to four wars; Indo-Pakistani war of 1947, 1965, 1971, 1999.
"In the riots that accompanied the partition in Punjab Province, it is believed that between 200,000 and 2,000,000 people were killed in what some have described as a retributive genocide between the religions while 50,000 Muslim women were abducted and raped by Hindu and Sikh men and 33,000 Hindu and Sikh women also experienced the same fate at the hands of Muslims Around 6.5 million Muslims moved from India to West Pakistan and 4.7 million Hindus and Sikhs moved from West Pakistan to India. It was the largest mass migration in human history Dispute over Jammu and Kashmir led to the First Kashmir War in 1948."
What is the fuss all about:
Commentary one;
"Islam is an Abrahamic religion that is unambiguously, rigidly monotheistic while Hinduism is a polytheistic, Indic religion. Islam sees Hindus as pagans and infidels. In Islam, Jews and Christians are known as ‘People of the Book’ and are therefore tolerated and a Muslim man can mary a Jewish or Christian woman. Marrying a pagan woman is haram (forbidden). In all respects, Islam has a very negative view of Hinduism due to the idolatory factor and the fact that the two share literally nothing in common."
Commentary 2;
"Islam divides world between Mosalmin and Kafirs. Kafirs again are divided as Kitabis and Butkhors. The Kitabis are those who follow a book given by God just like Moslmins. Butkhors are idol worshipers. The world of Mosalmins is Dar Ul Islam. The Butkhors that is Hindus have no place in Dar Ul Islam. Kitabis at least could be tolerated by making them to pay Zizia tax. But the Butkhors have no right to live in Dar Ul Islam. They would either run away or get converted or get killed. Their idols would be broken. That exactly has happened in Kashmir."
Ironically it might have been European Colonization and the British Empire that slowed down the spread of Islamic Invasions in the Subcontinent of India.
"Muslim conquests in the Indian subcontinent mainly took place from the 12th to the 16th centuries, though earlier Muslim conquests include the invasions into modern Afghanistan and Pakistan and the Umayyad campaigns in India, during the time of the Rajput kingdoms in the 8th century.
Mahmud of Ghazni, the first ruler to hold the title Sultan, who preserved an ideological link to the suzerainty of the Abbasid Caliphate, invaded and plundered vast parts of Punjab, Gujarat, starting from the Indus River, during the 10th century.
After the capture of Lahore and the end of the Ghaznavids, the Ghurid Empire ruled by Muhammad of Ghor and Ghiyath al-Din Muhammad laid the foundation of Muslim rule in India. In 1206, Bakhtiyar Khalji, whose invasion caused the disappearance of Buddhism from East India, led the Muslim conquest of Bengal, marking the eastern-most expansion of Islam at the time. The Ghurid Empire soon evolved into the Delhi Sultanate ruled by Qutb al-Din Aibak, the founder of the Mamluk dynasty. With the establishment of the Delhi Sultanate, Islam was spread across most parts of the Indian subcontinent.
In the 14th century, the Khalji dynasty, under Alauddin Khalji, temporarily extended Muslim rule southwards to Gujarat, Rajasthan and the Deccan, while the Tughlaq dynasty temporarily expanded its territorial reach till Tamil Nadu. The break up of the Delhi Sultanate resulted in several Muslim sultanates and dynasties to emerge across the Indian subcontinent, such as the Gujarat Sultanate, Malwa Sultanate, the Bahmani Sultanate and the wealthy Bengal Sultanate, a major trading nation in the world.[3][4] Some of these were however followed by Hindu re-conquests and resistance from the native powers, and states such as the Kamma Nayakas, Vijayanagaras, Gajapatis, Cheros, Reddys and Rajput states.
Prior to the full rise of the Mughal Empire founded by Babur, one of the gunpowder empires, which annexed almost all of the ruling elites of the whole of South Asia, the Sur Empire ruled by Sher Shah Suri conquered large territories in the northern parts of India. Akbar The Great gradually enlarged the Mughal Empire to include nearly all of South Asia, but the zenith was reached in the end of the 17th century, when the reign under emperor Aurangzeb witnessed the full establishment of Islamic sharia through the Fatawa-e-Alamgiri.
The Mughals suffered a massive decline in the early 18th century after Afsharid ruler Nader Shah's invasion, an unexpected attack that mortified even the British Empire. This provided opportunities for the powerful Mysore Kingdom, Nawabs of Bengal and Murshidabad, Maratha Empire, Sikh Empire, Nizams of Hyderabad to exercise control over large regions of the Indian subcontinent.
After the Battle of Plassey, Battle of Buxar and the long Anglo-Mysore Wars, the East India Company ended up seizing control of the entire Indian subcontinent. By the end of the 18th century, European powers, mainly the British Empire, commenced to extend political influence over the Muslim world, as well as extending into the Indian subcontinent, and by the end of the 19th century, much of the Muslim world as well as the Indian subcontinent, came under European colonial domination, most notably the British Raj."
And estimated that Islam persecution of Hindus may have resulted in the largest genocide in history
“With the invasion of India by Mahmud Ghazni about 1000 A.D., began the Muslim invasions into the Indian subcontinent and they lasted for several centuries. Nadir Shah made a mountain of the skulls of the Hindus he killed in Delhi alone. Babur raised towers of Hindu skulls at Khanua when he defeated Rana Sanga in 1527 and later he repeated the same horrors after capturing the fort of Chanderi. Akbar ordered a general massacre of 30,000 Rajputs after he captured Chithorgarh in 1568. The Bahamani Sultans had an annual agenda of killing a minimum of 100,000 Hindus every year."
"The Indian historian Professor K.S. Lal estimates that the Hindu population in India decreased by 80 million between 1000 AD and 1525 AD, an extermination unparalleled in World history. This slaughter of millions of people occurred over regular periods during many centuries of Arab, Afghan, Turkish and Mughal rule in India.”
Commentary one;
"Islam is an Abrahamic religion that is unambiguously, rigidly monotheistic while Hinduism is a polytheistic, Indic religion. Islam sees Hindus as pagans and infidels. In Islam, Jews and Christians are known as ‘People of the Book’ and are therefore tolerated and a Muslim man can mary a Jewish or Christian woman. Marrying a pagan woman is haram (forbidden). In all respects, Islam has a very negative view of Hinduism due to the idolatory factor and the fact that the two share literally nothing in common."
Commentary 2;
"Islam divides world between Mosalmin and Kafirs. Kafirs again are divided as Kitabis and Butkhors. The Kitabis are those who follow a book given by God just like Moslmins. Butkhors are idol worshipers. The world of Mosalmins is Dar Ul Islam. The Butkhors that is Hindus have no place in Dar Ul Islam. Kitabis at least could be tolerated by making them to pay Zizia tax. But the Butkhors have no right to live in Dar Ul Islam. They would either run away or get converted or get killed. Their idols would be broken. That exactly has happened in Kashmir."
Ironically it might have been European Colonization and the British Empire that slowed down the spread of Islamic Invasions in the Subcontinent of India.
"Muslim conquests in the Indian subcontinent mainly took place from the 12th to the 16th centuries, though earlier Muslim conquests include the invasions into modern Afghanistan and Pakistan and the Umayyad campaigns in India, during the time of the Rajput kingdoms in the 8th century.
Mahmud of Ghazni, the first ruler to hold the title Sultan, who preserved an ideological link to the suzerainty of the Abbasid Caliphate, invaded and plundered vast parts of Punjab, Gujarat, starting from the Indus River, during the 10th century.
After the capture of Lahore and the end of the Ghaznavids, the Ghurid Empire ruled by Muhammad of Ghor and Ghiyath al-Din Muhammad laid the foundation of Muslim rule in India. In 1206, Bakhtiyar Khalji, whose invasion caused the disappearance of Buddhism from East India, led the Muslim conquest of Bengal, marking the eastern-most expansion of Islam at the time. The Ghurid Empire soon evolved into the Delhi Sultanate ruled by Qutb al-Din Aibak, the founder of the Mamluk dynasty. With the establishment of the Delhi Sultanate, Islam was spread across most parts of the Indian subcontinent.
In the 14th century, the Khalji dynasty, under Alauddin Khalji, temporarily extended Muslim rule southwards to Gujarat, Rajasthan and the Deccan, while the Tughlaq dynasty temporarily expanded its territorial reach till Tamil Nadu. The break up of the Delhi Sultanate resulted in several Muslim sultanates and dynasties to emerge across the Indian subcontinent, such as the Gujarat Sultanate, Malwa Sultanate, the Bahmani Sultanate and the wealthy Bengal Sultanate, a major trading nation in the world.[3][4] Some of these were however followed by Hindu re-conquests and resistance from the native powers, and states such as the Kamma Nayakas, Vijayanagaras, Gajapatis, Cheros, Reddys and Rajput states.
Prior to the full rise of the Mughal Empire founded by Babur, one of the gunpowder empires, which annexed almost all of the ruling elites of the whole of South Asia, the Sur Empire ruled by Sher Shah Suri conquered large territories in the northern parts of India. Akbar The Great gradually enlarged the Mughal Empire to include nearly all of South Asia, but the zenith was reached in the end of the 17th century, when the reign under emperor Aurangzeb witnessed the full establishment of Islamic sharia through the Fatawa-e-Alamgiri.
The Mughals suffered a massive decline in the early 18th century after Afsharid ruler Nader Shah's invasion, an unexpected attack that mortified even the British Empire. This provided opportunities for the powerful Mysore Kingdom, Nawabs of Bengal and Murshidabad, Maratha Empire, Sikh Empire, Nizams of Hyderabad to exercise control over large regions of the Indian subcontinent.
After the Battle of Plassey, Battle of Buxar and the long Anglo-Mysore Wars, the East India Company ended up seizing control of the entire Indian subcontinent. By the end of the 18th century, European powers, mainly the British Empire, commenced to extend political influence over the Muslim world, as well as extending into the Indian subcontinent, and by the end of the 19th century, much of the Muslim world as well as the Indian subcontinent, came under European colonial domination, most notably the British Raj."
And estimated that Islam persecution of Hindus may have resulted in the largest genocide in history
“With the invasion of India by Mahmud Ghazni about 1000 A.D., began the Muslim invasions into the Indian subcontinent and they lasted for several centuries. Nadir Shah made a mountain of the skulls of the Hindus he killed in Delhi alone. Babur raised towers of Hindu skulls at Khanua when he defeated Rana Sanga in 1527 and later he repeated the same horrors after capturing the fort of Chanderi. Akbar ordered a general massacre of 30,000 Rajputs after he captured Chithorgarh in 1568. The Bahamani Sultans had an annual agenda of killing a minimum of 100,000 Hindus every year."
"The Indian historian Professor K.S. Lal estimates that the Hindu population in India decreased by 80 million between 1000 AD and 1525 AD, an extermination unparalleled in World history. This slaughter of millions of people occurred over regular periods during many centuries of Arab, Afghan, Turkish and Mughal rule in India.”
How has this conflict effected India's personal domestic politics? It is believed recent hostilities between Pakistan and India has influenced India's governing body to amend the citizenship law for refugees to exclude Muslims. The exclusion of Muslims from the immigrant citizenship law is a response to state sponsored terrorist training camps and recent terrorist attacks originating from Pakistani soil. It is difficult to separate a religious identity from these acts of terrorism and Pakistan when Pakistan considered itself an Islamic Republic.
"The government of India has recognized immigrants from Tibet and Sri Lanka as refugees in the past, providing free education and some identification to the former. After being passed in Parliament, the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019 allowed migrants from minority communities like Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain coming from neighboring Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan to be eligible for Indian citizenship provided they came into the country on or before 31 December 2014, excluding people from the Muslim community (the majority community of those nations). It also relaxes the requirement of residence for citizenship from 11 years to 5 years for such migrants."
The future of India is in balance. On one hand it is on track to become one of the largest economies in the world. It is also on track to be a member of a nuclear weapon club that can target any country in the world with ICBMs. Spite the fact that is believed to only have 120 or so nuclear weapons it is well known that they have enough enriched uranium for over a 1,000 weapons. Furthermore, India is on track to pass China with the world's largest population by 2030 with close to 1.5 billion people.
"The government of India has recognized immigrants from Tibet and Sri Lanka as refugees in the past, providing free education and some identification to the former. After being passed in Parliament, the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019 allowed migrants from minority communities like Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain coming from neighboring Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan to be eligible for Indian citizenship provided they came into the country on or before 31 December 2014, excluding people from the Muslim community (the majority community of those nations). It also relaxes the requirement of residence for citizenship from 11 years to 5 years for such migrants."
The future of India is in balance. On one hand it is on track to become one of the largest economies in the world. It is also on track to be a member of a nuclear weapon club that can target any country in the world with ICBMs. Spite the fact that is believed to only have 120 or so nuclear weapons it is well known that they have enough enriched uranium for over a 1,000 weapons. Furthermore, India is on track to pass China with the world's largest population by 2030 with close to 1.5 billion people.