Predictions of space exploration for the next 500 years December 2014
By Space Unlimited
As we reflect on 2014, it has been a fairly amazing year for space exploration. Among a list of accomplishments; a space probe landed on a comet, space probe was launched in route to land on an asteroid, and of course Orion to name a few. There are several new endeavors for the future that could make space exploration radically cheaper such as cubstats, skylone, Falcon heavy, and reusable rockets. However, this article is meant to be bold and to make long term space predictions. It is meant to be a mix of fun, speculation, and to engage the greater general public. Granted many of the predictions are safe and possibly conservative guesses. Furthermore, we will most likely not be alive to see if they all happened. Several of them will be in the realm of possibilities for people much younger. I think some of these predictions could happen much quicker, but I think there will be enormous amount of unanticipated legal work and issues about safety. On the other hand robotics will continue to replace people as they become lighter and more compact thus bringing down costs for space exploration. If we see an 80% decrease of launch costs and a 50% decrease in the size and weight of space equipment we are looking at an 8 fold increase in space exploration over the next ten years. These prediction are based on a reasonable speculation that technology will keep advancing at a current pace, people will not loss their interest in space, and as there are more profitable means to ship payloads to space there will be a flood of interest in willing entrepreneurs, investment companies, and billionaires. I think they will not only be driven by profits, but by making history.
One of my goals of writing these 10 predictions is to also to engage more people into taking an interest in space based on a sense of how close we might be to making huge leaps forward. I do not prove anything here with precise calculations, physics, or engineering. Rather I am attempting to blend fact and speculative to create a possible timeline. Depending on your views, these predictions could be viewed as realistic.
1)Within 25 years we will have a human sustained presence on the moon. I would wager it will be a more primitive start up research facility.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2824282/A-home-MOON-European-Space-Agency-reveals-plans-human-settlement-outside-Earth-says-inflatable-base-3D-printing-robots.html
2)Within 30 years there will be a space race to build space elevators or tug ships. Different companies and countries will try to out compete each other to do it cheaper. The goal at this point will be to compete for commercial contracts for an ever increasing number of investment companies wanting to invest in research and infrastructure on the moon, greater interest in prospecting asteroids, and transport rights for government contracts.
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2221/1
http://www.21stcentech.com/space-future-21st-century-part-2-establishing-stations-deep-space/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102021431
3)Within 40 years people will visit the moon for vacation. Thousands of people will leave and return from earth on a regular basis with the moon as their destination. At this point asteroids will probably be mined on frequent occurrence.
4)Within 45 years we will send real people to Mars for research. I think this will take longer than we think because robots are replacing people to explore space. Robots will prove safer, cheaper, smaller, and researchers will want to have a firm grasp on microbial life there. If there is microbial life on Mars this will set a very interesting precedence and debate.
5)Within 50 years there will be outposts throughout the solar system with research facilities with sustained human presence. Places such as Saturn, Jupiter and asteroid belts.
5)Within 60 years it will be common for people to pay for a ride on a cruise ship to travel across our solar system.
6)Within 70 years the first space colonists will be living in space. They will have set their sights on various moons, Mars, Venus, and Asteroids for building huge self-sustained living systems with artificial gravity.
8)Within 200 years the first human expedition to another solar system will commence. Thousands of habitable planets or at least terrestrial ones about the same size of earth will have been discovered. I think this will be possible because advanced technologies will be developed for gravitation, plentiful building materials from asteroids, and reasonable speeds of travel (maybe not be light speed but much faster than current speeds).
9)Within 300 years attempts to begin terraforming Venus will commence from floating sky cities.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/23/tech/innovation/tomorrow-transformed-venus-blimp-city/
10)Within 500 years returning probes launched from our solar system will be returning from nearby solar systems.
Several things to consider; what if we develop a means to extend life by doubling or tripling it? How would that change our perspective of space travel. Also, what if we could wear light and comfortable space suits that self-regulate. Let's also consider that we have already managed to send people to the moon and there were only 2 major powers participating in the Space Race then and they barely understood computers. Now days there are potentially six major space powers; India, China, Japan, US, EU, and Russia.
One of my goals of writing these 10 predictions is to also to engage more people into taking an interest in space based on a sense of how close we might be to making huge leaps forward. I do not prove anything here with precise calculations, physics, or engineering. Rather I am attempting to blend fact and speculative to create a possible timeline. Depending on your views, these predictions could be viewed as realistic.
1)Within 25 years we will have a human sustained presence on the moon. I would wager it will be a more primitive start up research facility.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2824282/A-home-MOON-European-Space-Agency-reveals-plans-human-settlement-outside-Earth-says-inflatable-base-3D-printing-robots.html
2)Within 30 years there will be a space race to build space elevators or tug ships. Different companies and countries will try to out compete each other to do it cheaper. The goal at this point will be to compete for commercial contracts for an ever increasing number of investment companies wanting to invest in research and infrastructure on the moon, greater interest in prospecting asteroids, and transport rights for government contracts.
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2221/1
http://www.21stcentech.com/space-future-21st-century-part-2-establishing-stations-deep-space/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102021431
3)Within 40 years people will visit the moon for vacation. Thousands of people will leave and return from earth on a regular basis with the moon as their destination. At this point asteroids will probably be mined on frequent occurrence.
4)Within 45 years we will send real people to Mars for research. I think this will take longer than we think because robots are replacing people to explore space. Robots will prove safer, cheaper, smaller, and researchers will want to have a firm grasp on microbial life there. If there is microbial life on Mars this will set a very interesting precedence and debate.
5)Within 50 years there will be outposts throughout the solar system with research facilities with sustained human presence. Places such as Saturn, Jupiter and asteroid belts.
5)Within 60 years it will be common for people to pay for a ride on a cruise ship to travel across our solar system.
6)Within 70 years the first space colonists will be living in space. They will have set their sights on various moons, Mars, Venus, and Asteroids for building huge self-sustained living systems with artificial gravity.
8)Within 200 years the first human expedition to another solar system will commence. Thousands of habitable planets or at least terrestrial ones about the same size of earth will have been discovered. I think this will be possible because advanced technologies will be developed for gravitation, plentiful building materials from asteroids, and reasonable speeds of travel (maybe not be light speed but much faster than current speeds).
9)Within 300 years attempts to begin terraforming Venus will commence from floating sky cities.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/23/tech/innovation/tomorrow-transformed-venus-blimp-city/
10)Within 500 years returning probes launched from our solar system will be returning from nearby solar systems.
Several things to consider; what if we develop a means to extend life by doubling or tripling it? How would that change our perspective of space travel. Also, what if we could wear light and comfortable space suits that self-regulate. Let's also consider that we have already managed to send people to the moon and there were only 2 major powers participating in the Space Race then and they barely understood computers. Now days there are potentially six major space powers; India, China, Japan, US, EU, and Russia.